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Springer, Boston, MA

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10.1002/chin.201236254

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The Size Distribution of Profits from Innovation

Authors: Frederic M Scherer
Publish Date: 2000
Volume: , Issue: , Pages: 473-494
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Abstract

— This paper reports on research seeking to determine how skew the distribution of profits from technological innovation is — ie whether it conforms most closely to the Paretian log normal or some other distribution The question is important because high skewness makes it difficult to pursue riskhedging portfolio strategies and it may have real business cycle consequences Data from several sources are examined the royalties from US university patent portfolios the quasirents from marketed pharmaceutical entities the stock market returns from three large samples of hightechnology venture startups and preliminary results from a survey of German patents on which renewal fees were paid until fullterm expiration in 1995 The evidence reveals a mixture of distributions some close to log normality and some Paretian Preliminary hypotheses about the underlying behavioral processes are advanced


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