Journal Title
Title of Journal: Meteorol Atmos Phys
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Abbravation: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
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Publisher
Springer-Verlag
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Authors: M L Kaplan A W Huffman K M Lux J J Charney A J Riordan YL Lin
Publish Date: 2004/05/19
Volume: 88, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 129-152
Abstract
In this paper we describe the results of 44 case study analyses of synoptic scale data sets that define the atmospheric structure prior to the development of accidentproducing turbulence First the 44 case studies are categorized as a function of the location altitude time of year time of day and turbulence environment ie in clear air cloudiness convection near mountains or in the proximity of deep convection It is noteworthy that this later category was much more ubiquitous than was anticipated Second NCEP Reanalysis data sets as well as both visible and infrared satellite imagery are employed to diagnose “predictor” fields associated with the synopticscale environment preceding severe turbulence These predictor fields are calculated based on jet stream configuration kinematic dynamical and thermodynamic analyses of the synopticscale atmosphereThe results of these analyses indicate a prevalence of severe accidentproducing turbulence within the entrance region of the polar or subtropical jet stream at the synopticscale Typically there is a region of flow curvature located just upstream within the jet entrance region convection is present within 100 km of the accident the vertical motion is upward typically within the curved entrance region absolute vorticity is low the vertical wind shear is increasing with time and horizontal cold air advection is substantial Not all of the 44case studies conform to this entrance region paradigm However most do and the most consistent predictor of severe turbulence is upstream curvature in the synopticscale flow Nearby convection is the second most ubiquitous predictor field Upward vertical motion low absolute vorticity and horizontal cold air advection are all typical predictors in case studies occurring both within the entrance and exit regions of the polar or subtropical jet stream
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