Incorporated probability that a fleet meets a give

Authors: Lyuben D Ivanov Ge Wang

Publish Date: 2008/08/07

Volume: 13, Issue: 4, Pages: 455-464

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Abstract

The paper presents a study on the incorporated probability that a tanker fleet meets a given permissible value of hull girder strength loss The analysis was based on a database of hull girder section modulus HGSM for asgauged girth belts of tankers It was found that its mean value is below 5 over the entire life span of the analyzed tanker fleet The Weibull probabilistic distribution was found to best represent the timevarying HGSM loss A method was developed for calculating the incorporated safety of a fleet As an example the IMO requirement for a maximum HGSM reduction of 10 relative to its required value was analyzed accounting for timevariant HGSM loss and including a probabilistic model for coating longevityThe maximum error incorporated into the approximate analytical method ie when Eq 16 is used is within the range of −45 to 25 relative to the accurate numerical method for coefficients of variance cov ie standard deviation divided by the mean value of 07 For cov 07 the error is smaller than 1

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