Demographic Modeling of a PredatorPrey System and

Authors: Marc Fourrier Robert W Sussman Rebecca Kippen Geoff Childs

Publish Date: 2008/04/01

Volume: 29, Issue: 2, Pages: 497-508

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Abstract

We evaluated the viability of colobus populations under conservative estimates of predation by chimpanzees If fertility and mortality schedules remain constant intensely hunted red colobus populations will experience negative growth rates if one allows the assumption of stable age structure to persist into the future Demographic models have many advantages in studies of primate behavior and ecology Researchers use them to investigate the quality of observed data and to project population growth rates to changes in mortality fertility and migration schedules We used published agespecific death rates for red colobus Procolobus rufomitratus tephrosceles in Gombe National Park Tanzania to construct model life tables under various mortality scenarios Selection in lifehistory traits toward shorter interbirth intervals reduction in gestation length and increased dispersal of individuals from source to sink populations and antipredator behavior show a limited ability to counter the effects of intense predation At Gombe where factors such as small reserve size and isolation prevail current levels of predation by chimpanzees may depress intrinsic growth rates low enough to cause the extirpation of red colobus in the near future

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