Conceptual study on incorporating user information

Authors: Jiarui Han Qian Ye Zhongwei Yan Meiyan Jiao Jiangjiang Xia

Publish Date: 2010/10/21

Volume: 5, Issue: 4, Pages: 533-542

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Abstract

The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction An ideal forecasting system would incorporate userend information In recent years the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited the improvement from the user end still has potential The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic useroriented interactive component This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble project in China a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City Shandong Province a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China A selfimproving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season changing thresholds for floodinducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions and dynamic useroriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive useroriented forecast systems

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