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Title of Journal: Int Tax Public Finance

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Abbravation: International Tax and Public Finance

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Springer US

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10.1007/s11759-010-9143-7

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1573-6970

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The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fisc

Authors: Florian Chatagny Nils C Soguel
Publish Date: 2011/07/30
Volume: 19, Issue: 3, Pages: 319-337
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Abstract

This study is an empirical analysis of the impact of direct tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal deficits Using panel data from 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2002 we estimate a single equation model on the fiscal balance as well as a simultaneous equation model on revenue and expenditure We use new data on budgeted and actual tax revenue to show that underestimating tax revenue significantly reduces fiscal deficits Furthermore we show that this effect is channeled through decreased expenditure The effects of over and underestimation turn out to be symmetric


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