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Title of Journal: Adv Atmos Sci

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Abbravation: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

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SP Science Press

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DOI

10.1007/bf03284995

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1861-9533

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An updated estimation of radiative forcing due to

Authors: Hua Zhang Ruoyu Zhang Guangyu Shi
Publish Date: 2013/06/18
Volume: 30, Issue: 4, Pages: 1017-1024
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Abstract

New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a highresolution radiative transfer model The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing ARF due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 195 W m−2 which was 17 larger than that of the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005 A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration Furthermore according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 15 2 25 3 35 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008 The result was values of +22°C +38°C +51°C +62°C +71°C and +80°C respectively based on a middlelevel climate sensitivity parameter of 08 K W m−2−1 Nonequilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios pulsed and sustained emissions as a comparison according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential AGTP of CO2 Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed and the effect on the Earthatmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level

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