Bayesian Advice for Gaydarbased Picking Up Comme

Authors: Martin Plöderl

Publish Date: 2013/08/14

Volume: 43, Issue: 1, Pages: 7-9

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Abstract

Consider the following About 5  of people are homosexual Is it possible to detect from appearance if somebody is homosexual This seems to be possible In a recent study participants were able to detect if somebody was homosexual better than chance In this study participants had to judge the sexual orientation of individuals based on 80 photographs of faces 40 photographs depicted a homosexual person the other 40 photographs depicted a heterosexual person It turned out that 70  of the homosexual persons were correctly identified Of the heterosexual pictures only 20  were incorrectly classified as homosexualNow the question Assume that all individuals can be as accurate in detecting sexual orientation as in this study If one sees a randomly chosen individual in the street and judges the person to be homosexual what is the chance between 0 and 100  that the person is indeed homosexual

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