Will the real security foresight expert please sta

Authors: Sarah Lohmann Tim Tepel

Publish Date: 2014/03/29

Volume: 2, Issue: 1, Pages: 37-

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Abstract

In its critical comparative overview of foresight methods and how they are used by different futures institutes in Europe North America and their partners the text argues that while many futures institutes claim to provide foresight expertise few actually provide the tools needed by policy makers to help prepare for security risks It identifies two trademarks of genuine security foresight experts 1 They will differentiate between trends and futures research 2 Their methods will have met with success in providing early warning signals These methods often come from the fields of statistical analysis and computer simulation but can be enriched by human judgment which tests modeling results in the real worldIn a globalized era where futures studies can provide warning signals for security threats cooperation among the major futures studies players in Europe and its allies in North America and beyond is vital Civil unrest ethnic conflict terrorist attacks or stateled discrimination can have an impact on the security of neighboring states or even strategic partners a continent away Yet while those claiming to have foresight prowess have created lucrative business opportunities not all groups use scientifically reliable methods useful for preventing security risks Making unified progress on security policy and global cooperation between institutes even more difficult many institutes use futures research vocabulary differently This article discusses the methodology and futures lingo used by foresight companies and institutes Specifically it focuses on an overview of which of their quantitative methods can provide early warning mechanisms in military and political security1In scanning the literature provided by futures institutes about themselves as well as their publications two main observations stand out 1 While “pop futurism” confuses popular trends with futures research the genuine expert will know the difference 2 2 One can identify the real security foresight specialist by his or her use of methods that have met with success in providing early warning signals These methods often come from the fields of statistical analysis and computer simulation but can be enriched by human judgment which tests modeling results in the real worldAmong the most common vocabulary used interchangeably are “trends” and “futures research” 2 While trends are a movement in one specific direction over time 3 4 with a duration of 3 to 5 years 5 futures research is an interdisciplinary approach to “gaining understanding of how today’s conditions and trends will likely shape the future … and how the future conditions could be shaped by policies and actions taken … today” 6Many companies believed they were conducting futures research when actually they were merely looking at trends in market values stock shares or cultural mores For this purpose our interdisciplinary team has created a glossary containing definitions used by the Futures Research community and has highlighted one streamlined definition which can be used by anyone conducting research in the field of futures research view glossary here wwwunibwde/internationalepolitik/projekte/projekte/Zukunftsanalyse/ 7When governments want to find a futures institute which can advise them on security issues they will need to sort through the countless institutes with “futures” in the name which perform more qualitative research with the aim of either looking at trends as opposed to forecasts or early warning systems or at selfrealization techniques such as “visioning” which helps one envision a utopian future for oneself or one’s companyWhile many futures institutes such as the World Future Society the Centre for Futures Studies and the Foresight Institute offer the “Delphi” technique which consists of convening a panel of experts to analyse trends or make future predictions the predictions made by these experts are only as accurate as the methods used by each Other institutes such as Kairos Future in Stockholm tout the use of “road mapping” a visualization of a future goal based on the metaphor of navigation Institutes such as Tamkang University or The Futures Academy in Dublin use a “futures wheel” which refers to the visualization of the consequences of trends through diagramming them on a wheel 2 These methods do not necessarily provide warning signals for the future so much as they are simply a diagram or visualization of goals desires and outcomes

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