Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Disease

Authors: R Adam Ray Julie D Alexander Patrick De Leenheer Jerri L Bartholomew

Publish Date: 2015

Volume: , Issue: , Pages: 363-378

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Abstract

Shifts in future temperature and precipitation patterns will have profound effects on hostparasite interactions and the dynamics of disease in freshwater systems The aims of this chapter are to present an overview of myxozoan disease dynamics in the context of climate change and to illustrate how these might be predicted over the next several decades by developing a case study of disease dynamics of Ceratonova syn Ceratomyxa shasta in the Klamath River California USA Our case study introduces a model ensemble for predicting changes in disease dynamics under different climate scenarios warm/dry moderate/median and cool/wet from 2020 to 2060 The ensemble uses Global Circulation Models GCMs and basin scaled models for the Klamath River to generate predictions for future water temperature and river discharge The environmental data are used as inputs for a predictive model and a degree day model to simulate effects of climate change on polychaete host populations and on C shasta spore viability respectively Outputs from these models were then used to parameterize an epidemiological model to predict changes in disease dynamics under each climate scenario The epidemiological model outputs were measured against baselines established using real data for low 2006 high 2008 and intermediate 2011 disease risk years In general the epidemiological model predicts that except for infrequent high discharge years C shasta dynamics will be similar to the high disease risk baseline 2008 This suggests that the recovery and management of Klamath River salmon will continue to be impacted by C shastaWe thank Katrina Wright USFWS Arcata CA office for the 2DHM outputs and Russell Perry USGS for providing data and assistance with its interpretation for the environmental data models This work was supported by Oregon Sea Grant under project number R/BT47 and award number NA10OAR4170059 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Sea Grant College Program US Department of Commerce and by appropriations made by the Oregon State Legislature The findings conclusions and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of these funding bodies

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