Dissolving the startree paradox

Authors: Bengt Autzen

Publish Date: 2015/08/08

Volume: 31, Issue: 3, Pages: 409-419

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Abstract

While Bayesian methods have become very popular in phylogenetic systematics the foundations of this approach remain controversial The startree paradox in Bayesian phylogenetics refers to the phenomenon that a particular binary phylogenetic tree sometimes has a very high posterior probability even though a star tree generates the data I argue that this phenomenon reveals an unattractive feature of the Bayesian approach to scientific inference and discuss two proposals for how to address the startree paradox In particular I defend the polytomy prior as a solution or rather dissolution of the paradox and argue that it is preferable to a datasize dependent branch lengths prior from a methodological perspective However while this reply dissolves the startree paradox the general challenge to Bayesian confirmation theory remains unmet

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