Iraq the Vote Retrospective and Prospective Forei

Authors: Christopher Gelpi Jason Reifler Peter Feaver

Publish Date: 2007/03/13

Volume: 29, Issue: 2, Pages: 151-174

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Abstract

In this article we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance using survey data collected during the 2004 election We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice In addition there is an important interaction between the two variables so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters and that it matters in reasonable waysThis work is supported by grants from the Carnegie Corporation and the National Science Foundation The authors would like to thank an anonymous reviewer the editors of Political Behavior John Aldrich and seminar participants at Duke University for their helpful commentsMost Important Issue Respondents were asked “When choosing for whom to vote which of the following issues are most important to you personally” Answer categories were “Foreign policy issues like Iraq and the War on Terrorism” “Economic issues like jobs and taxes” and “Social issues like abortion and gay marriage”RightThing Respondents were asked “We would like to know whether you think President Bush did the right thing by using military force against Iraq Would you say that you strongly approve somewhat approve some what disapprove or strongly disapprove of his decision” Strongly approve = 3 Somewhat approve = 2 Somewhat disapprove = 1 Strongly disapprove = 0Success Respondents were asked “Regardless of whether you think that the President did the right thing would you say that the US is very likely succeed in Iraq somewhat likely to succeed not very likely to succeed or not at all likely to succeed” Very likely to succeed = 3 Somewhat likely to succeed = 2 Not very likely to succeed = 1 Not at all likely to succeed = 0Vote Respondents were asked “If the general election for President were held today and the candidates were George W Bush the Republican John Kerry the Democrat Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote” If undecided respondents were asked “Toward whom do you lean” Bush = 4 Lean Bush = 3 Undecided = 2 Lean Kerry = 1 Kerry = 0Casualty Tolerance To measure casualty tolerance we asked respondents a series of questions including a split sample design to assess if the number of dead and wounded affects opinion differently than just the number dead We found no difference by including information about the number wounded in addition to those killed In the questions that follow the extra wording for the split sample is included in parenthesesAll respondents received the statement “Regardless of whether you think the President made the right decision in attacking Iraq as you know the United States is engaged in an ongoing military operation there and has suffered about 1000 military deaths and over 7000 military wounded”Respondents were then asked “Would you support continued US military action in Iraq until a new Iraqi government can take over if it resulted in no additional US military deaths” If they said no Casualty Tolerance = 0 if they said yes they were asked “would you support continued US military action in Iraq until a new Iraqi government can take over if it resulted in up to 1500 total US military deaths and over 10000 military wounded” If they said no Casualty Tolerance = 1 if they said yes they were asked “Would you support continued US military action in Iraq until a new Iraqi government can take over if it resulted in up to 5000 total US military deaths and over 30000 military wounded” If they said no Casualty Tolerance = 2 if they said yes they were asked “Would you support continued US military action in Iraq until a new Iraqi government can take over if it resulted in up to 50000 total US military deaths and over 300000 military wounded” If they said no Casualty Tolerance = 3 if they said yes Casualty Tolerance = 4

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