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Title of Journal: Empir Econ

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Abbravation: Empirical Economics

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1002/dev.420080403

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1435-8921

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Bankruptcy in the pulp and paper industry market’

Authors: ChunYu Ho Patrick McCarthy Yi Yang Xuan Ye
Publish Date: 2012/12/08
Volume: 45, Issue: 3, Pages: 1205-1232
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Abstract

This paper examines North American pulp and paper company bankruptcies that occurred between 1990 and 2009 We demonstrate that shareholders suffer substantial losses 37  during the month a bankruptcy occurs Encouragingly we show that financial ratios are useful in predicting firm failure and that failed firms are less profitable more liquidity constrained and higher in debt leverage Using a binary logit model in the spirit of Ohlson J Acc Res 19 109–131 1980 we predict financial distress for pulp and paper firms 1 to 2 years ahead of the bankruptcy We also adapt and reestimate the empirical model on a sample of pulp and paper firms and perform insample and outofsample forecasts For the outofsample analysis our reestimated Ohlson models correctly predict 93  of bankruptcy and nonbankruptcy outcomes

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