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Title of Journal: Neural Comput Applic

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Abbravation: Neural Computing and Applications

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Springer London

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ISSN

1433-3058

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Incorporating the effects of hike in energy prices

Authors: V Majazi Dalfard M Nazari Asli S NazariShirkouhi S M Sajadi S M Asadzadeh
Publish Date: 2012/12/22
Volume: 23, Issue: 1, Pages: 153-169
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Abstract

This paper proposes an adaptive fuzzy expert system to concurrently estimate and forecast both longterm electricity and natural gas NG consumptions with hike in prices Using a novel procedure the impact of price hike is incorporated into energy demand modeling Furthermore adaptive networkbased FIS ANFIS is used to model NG consumption in power generation NGPG To cope with random uncertainty in small historical data sets Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate training data for ANFIS The proposed ANFIS uses electricity consumption data to improve the estimation of total NG consumption The unique contribution of this paper is three fold First it proposes a novel expert system for electricity consumption and NG consumption in enduse sector with hike in prices Second it uses ANFISMonte Carlo approach for NGPG Third electricity consumption is used in ANFIS for improvement of NGPG consumption estimation A real case study is presented that illustrates the applicability and usefulness of the proposed model where it is applied for joint forecasting of annual electricity and NG consumption with hike in prices

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