Authors: Mohammad A Safi Dessalegn Y Melesse Abba B Gumel
Publish Date: 2013/05/01
Volume: 75, Issue: 7, Pages: 1104-1137
Abstract
A new twostrain model for assessing the impact of basic control measures treatment and dosestructured mass vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics in a population is designed The model has a globallyasymptotically stable diseasefree equilibrium whenever its associated reproduction number is less than unity The model has a unique and locallyasymptotically stable endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity and another condition holds Numerical simulations of the model show that with the expected 50 minimum efficacy of the first vaccine dose vaccinating 55 of the susceptible population with the first vaccine dose will be sufficient to effectively control the spread of cholera in the community Such effective control can also be achieved if 50 of the first vaccine dose recipients take the second dose It is shown that a control strategy that emphasizes the use of antibiotic treatment is more effective than one that emphasizes the use of basic nonpharmaceutical anticholera control measures only Numerical simulations show that while the universal strategy involving all three control measures gives the best outcome in minimizing cholera burden in the community the combined basic anticholera control measures and treatment strategy also has very effective communitywide impactABG acknowledges with thanks the support in part of the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council NSERC of Canada DYM acknowledges the support from the Centre for Global Public Health at the University of Manitoba The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments
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