Integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic in

Authors: Ozgur M Araz

Publish Date: 2013/09/17

Volume: 22, Issue: 3, Pages: 319-339

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Abstract

Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers’ preferences into decisionmaking processes In this paper a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak A multicriteria decision making framework an Analytical Hierarchy Process model is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a tabletop exercise environmentOzgur M Araz is an Assistant Professor in the College of Public Health at the University of Nebraska Medical Center His primary research interests are complex systems thinking modeling and simulation modeling chronic and infectious diseases decision modeling healthcare operations management and sustainable development He has his PhD degree from Arizona State University MS degree from SUNY Buffalo and BS degree from Istanbul Technical University all in Industrial Engineering He also had a postdoctoral training at the University of Texas at Austin in the Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics He is member of various professional organizations including American Public Health Association INFORMS and Omega Rho

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