Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of

Authors: Juan Carlos Peña Montserrat Aran José Miguel Raso Nuria PérezZanón

Publish Date: 2014/06/22

Volume: 59, Issue: 4, Pages: 435-446

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Abstract

The aim of the study is to classify the synoptic sequences associated with excess mortality during the warm season in the Barcelona metropolitan area To achieve this purpose we undertook a principal sequence pattern analysis that incorporates different atmospheric levels in an attempt at identifying the main features that account for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric processes The sequence length was determined by the shortterm displacement between temperature and mortality To detect this lag we applied the crosscorrelation function to the residuals obtained from the modelling of the daily temperature and mortality series of summer These residuals were estimated by means of an autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model A 7day sequence emerged as the basic temporal unit for evaluating the synoptic background that triggers the temperature related to excess mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area The principal sequence pattern analysis distinguished three main synoptic patterns two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low which can be associated with heat waves recorded in southern Europe and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation associated with the persistence of a blocking anticyclone over Europe related to heat waves recorded in northern and central western EuropeThis study was conducted by the Climatology Group 2009 SGR 443 GROUP climatology and the PaleoRisk Research Group 2014 SGR 507 University of Barcelona We wish to thank the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Fabra Observatory for providing the daily temperature series The authors would also like to thank the Information and Research Service of the Health Department of the Generalitat de Catalunya for providing mortality data for the city of Barcelona and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Climate Program Office for supplying the 20CRP

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