The predictability of evolution glimpses into a p

Authors: Simon Conway Morris

Publish Date: 2009/09/23

Volume: 96, Issue: 11, Pages: 1313-1337

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Abstract

The very success of the Darwinian explanation in not only demonstrating evolution from multiple lines of evidence but also in providing some plausible explanations paradoxically seems to have served to have stifled explorations into other areas of investigation The fact of evolution is now almost universally yoked to the assumption that its outcomes are random trends are little more than drunkard’s walks and most evolutionary products are masterpieces of improvisation and far from perfect But is this correct Let us consider some alternatives Is there evidence that evolution could in anyway be predictable Can we identify alternative forms of biological organizations and if so how viable are they Why are some molecules so extraordinarily versatile while others can be spoken of as “molecules of choice” How fortuitous are the major transitions in the history of life What implications might this have for the Tree of Life To what extent is evolutionary diversification constrained or facilitated by prior states Are evolutionary outcomes merely sufficient or alternatively are they highly efficient even superb Here I argue that in sharp contradistinction to an orthodox Darwinian view not only is evolution much more predictable than generally assumed but also investigation of its organizational substrates including those of sensory systems which indicates that it is possible to identify a predictability to the process and outcomes of evolution If correct the implications may be of some significance not least in separating the unexceptional Darwinian mechanisms from underlying organizational principles which may indicate evolutionary inevitabilitiesI give my warm thanks to Vivien Brown for efficient typing of numerous drafts and to the editors for inviting me to write this review I also thank both colleagues and publishers for permission to reproduce figured material and Sharon Capon for redrafting Figs 2 3 and 6 7 8 9 and 10 I apologize to the many workers whose contributions could not be cited because of lack of space Finally I thank Ken McNamara and four anonymous referees for critical and constructive reviews

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