Journal Title
Title of Journal: Plant Ecol
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Abbravation: Plant Ecology
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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
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Authors: Katsuhiro Nakao Tetsuya Matsui Masahiro Horikawa Ikutaro Tsuyama Nobuyuki Tanaka
Publish Date: 2010/08/09
Volume: 212, Issue: 2, Pages: 229-243
Abstract
To assess the impact of Quercus acuta a dominant species in the evergreen broadleaved forests of Japan and its habitat shifts as a result of climate change we predicted the potential habitats under the current climate and two climate change scenarios using a random forest RF The presence/absence records of Q acuta were extracted from the Phytosociological Relevè Data Base as response variables and four climatic variables warmth index WI minimum temperature of the coldest month TMC summer precipitation PRS and winter precipitation PRW were used as predictor variables The mean decrease in the Gini criterion revealed that WI was the most influential factor followed by TMC The RF revealed a considerable increase in potential habitats PHs under the climate change scenarios for 2081–2100 RCM20 180141 km2 MIROC 175635 km2 relative to the current climate 150542 km2 The land use variables were used for masking PH The PH masked by land use PHLU was approximately half of the PH under the current conditions 74567 km2 Under the climate change scenarios and 1 km migration options the PHLU were not increased relative to its value under the current conditions The distribution of Q acuta was restricted by the northward shift in northern Honshu but expanded as a result of the upward shift into the mountain areas of Western Japan Habitat fragmentation reduced the ability of migration to respond to climate change in the lowland areas of JapanWe thank T Hukusima H Daimaru M Higa E Nakazono and H Ohashi for their useful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript This study was supported by the Global Environmental Research of Japan S4 and S8 program of the Ministry of the Environment and the fund for development of mitigation and adaptation techniques to global warming in the sectors of agriculture forestry and fisheries under Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries Japan
Keywords:
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