Predicting the Distribution of Emphasis Type="Ita

Authors: Guillaume Constantin de Magny Wen Long Christopher W Brown Raleigh R Hood Anwar Huq Raghu Murtugudde Rita R Colwell

Publish Date: 2010/02/10

Volume: 6, Issue: 3, Pages: 378-389

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Abstract

Vibrio cholerae the causative agent of cholera is a naturally occurring inhabitant of the Chesapeake Bay and serves as a predictor for other clinically important vibrios including Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus A system was constructed to predict the likelihood of the presence of V cholerae in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay with the goal to provide forecasts of the occurrence of this and related pathogenic Vibrio spp Prediction was achieved by driving an available multivariate empirical habitat model estimating the probability of V cholerae within a range of temperatures and salinities in the Bay with hydrodynamically generated predictions of ambient temperature and salinity The experimental predictions provided both an improved understanding of the in situ variability of V cholerae including identification of potential hotspots of occurrence and usefulness as an early warning system With further development of the system prediction of the probability of the occurrence of related pathogenic vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay notably V parahaemolyticus and V vulnificus will be possible as well as its transport to any geographical location where sufficient relevant data are availableGCdeM and RRC were funded in part by National Institutes of Health Grant No 1 R01 A139129 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Grant No S0660009 WL and RH were funded by NOAA Grant No NA05NOS4781222 and NA05NOS4781226 and CWB by the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research Authors gratefully acknowledge Jiangtao Xu for her contribution to the hindcast capability

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