Journal Title
Title of Journal: Estuaries and Coasts
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Abbravation: Estuaries and Coasts
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Authors: Frank E Marshall G Lynn Wingard Patrick A Pitts
Publish Date: 2014/05/12
Volume: 37, Issue: 6, Pages: 1449-1466
Abstract
Disruption of the natural patterns of freshwater flow into estuarine ecosystems occurred in many locations around the world beginning in the twentieth century To effectively restore these systems establishing a prealteration perspective allows managers to develop sciencebased restoration targets for salinity and hydrology This paper describes a process to develop targets based on natural hydrologic functions by coupling paleoecology and regression models using the subtropical Greater Everglades Ecosystem as an example Paleoecological investigations characterize the circa 1900 CE prealteration salinity regime in Florida Bay based on molluscan remains in sediment cores These paleosalinity estimates are converted into time series estimates of paleobased salinity stage and flow using numeric and statistical models Model outputs are weighted using the mean square error statistic and then combined Results indicate that in the absence of water management salinity in Florida Bay would be about 3 to 9 salinity units lower than current conditions To achieve this target upstream freshwater levels must be about 025 m higher than indicated by recent observed data with increased flow inputs to Florida Bay between 21 and 37 times existing flows This flow deficit is comparable to the average volume of water currently being diverted from the Everglades ecosystem by water management The products paleobased Florida Bay salinity and upstream hydrology provide estimates of prealteration hydrology and salinity that represent target restoration conditions This method can be applied to any estuarine ecosystem with available paleoecologic data and empirical and/or modelbased hydrologic dataThis project was funded by the USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science GEPES effort G Ronnie Best Coordinator the National Park Service Everglades National Park through the Critical Ecosystems Studies Initiative CESI and the US Army Corps of Engineers RECOVER Branch with direction from DeWitt Smith NPS Cheryl Buckingham USACE and Sue Kemp USACE The paleoecological portion of this work was conducted as part of National Park Service NPS Study number EVER00141 Everglades National Park also provided access to and assistance with the hydrologic and salinity station data We would like to thank Christopher Bernhardt USGS Thomas Cronin USGS and two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments and suggestions which have improved this report Bethany Stackhouse USGS created the study area maps Figs 1 and 3 Numerous people have assisted in the collection processing and analyses of the USGS cores and in the development of the modern analog salinity dataset including Robert Halley retired USGS Charles W Holmes retired USGS Joel Hudley University of North Carolina Chapel Hill James Murray USGS Bethany Stackhouse USGS Jeffery Stone University of Nebraska Lincoln and Carleigh Trappe former USGS contractor Any use of trade firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government
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