Journal Title
Title of Journal: Arab J Geosci
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Abbravation: Arabian Journal of Geosciences
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Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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Authors: Homa Razmkhah Ali Mohammad AkhoundAli Fereydoun Radmanesh Bahram Saghafian
Publish Date: 2016/04/12
Volume: 9, Issue: 4, Pages: 323-
Abstract
Lack of accuracy of rainfallrunoff simulation RRS remains critical for some applications Among various sources of uncertainty precipitation plays a particular role Rainfall rates as the main input data of RRS are of the first factors controlling the accuracy In addition to the depth spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall impact the flood discharge Most of the previous studies on RRS uncertainty have ignored rainfall spatial distribution where in large catchments it is necessary to be modeled explicitly Karoon III is one most important basin of the Iran because of the Karoon III dam in the outlet In the present work effect of spatial correlation of rainfall on HECHMS SMA continuous RRS uncertainty is evaluated using 2variate copula 2copula Monte Carlo simulation MCS approach was used to consider the rainfall spatial dependence To reduce the computational expense sampling efficiency and convergence for MCS Latin hypercube sampling LHS was used Copula functions consider wide range of marginal probability distribution functions PDFs eliminating limits of regular join PDFs For this aim two scenarios were investigated In the first scenario subbasin rainfall was considered independent and in the second scenario 2copula was adopted to model spatial correlation of rainfall Dimensionless rainfall depths were calculated for each subbasin and the PDFs were determined The generated random dimensionless rainfalls were reweighted and multiplied by watershed’s mean rainfall value Stochastic Climate Library was used to generate continuous daily rainfalls Sampling from dimensionless rainfalls using LHS algorithm 100 runs of calibrated modelsimulated 100 flows for each day following MCS and 80 certainty bound was calculated Results showed that considering dependence decreased 18 of the maximum uncertainty bound width so the methodology could be recommended for decreasing predicted runoff error
Keywords:
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