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Title of Journal: Water Sci Technol

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Abbravation: Water Science and Technology

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IWA Publishing

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DOI

10.1007/bf00458144

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ISSN

0273-1223

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Preliminary uncertainty analysis – a prerequisite

Authors: Lei Jian Hua Schilling Wolfgang
Publish Date: 1996/01/01
Volume: 33, Issue: 2, Pages: 79-90
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Abstract

Physicallybased urban rainfallrunoff models are mostly applied without parameter calibration Given some preliminary estimates of the uncertainty of the model parameters the associated model output uncertainty can be calculated MonteCarlo simulation followed by multilinear regression is used for this analysis The calculated model output uncertainty can be compared to the uncertainty estimated by comparing model output and observed data Based on this comparison systematic or spurious errors can be detected in the observation data the validity of the model structure can be confirmed and the most sensitive parameters can be identified If the calculated model output uncertainty is unacceptably large the most sensitive parameters should be calibrated to reduce the uncertainty Observation data for which systematic and/or spurious errors have been detected should be discarded from the calibration data This procedure is referred to as preliminary uncertainty analysis it is illustrated with an example The HYSTEM program is applied to predict the runoff volume from an experimental catchment with a total area of 68 ha and an impervious area of 20 ha Based on the preliminary uncertainty analysis for 7 of 10 events the measured runoff volume is within the calculated uncertainty range ie less than or equal to the calculated model predictive uncertainty The remaining 3 events include most likely systematic or spurious errors in the observation data either in the rainfall or the runoff measurements These events are then discarded from further analysis After calibrating the model the predictive uncertainty of the model is estimated


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  2. Detection of F+ bacteriophage in large volumes of water by a membrane filter method (MFM)
  3. Estimation of the fate of microbial water quality contaminants in a South African river
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  6. Chemical perception and behavioral response of freshwater fish to 2-methylisoborneol
  7. Use of wastewater for crop production under arid and saline conditions: yield and hygienic quality of the crop and soil contaminations
  8. DAF treatment of a reservoir water supply: comparison with in-line direct filtration and control of organic matter
  9. Multiple interactions in riverine biofilms - surfactant adsorption, bacterial attachment and biodegradation
  10. Treatment of primary-settled urban sewage in pilot-scale vertical flow wetland filters: comparison of four emergent macrophyte species over a 12 month period
  11. Wastewater treatment by stabilization pond: Marrakesh experiment
  12. Methanogenic activity and performance of UASB, DSFF and USFF reactors
  13. Challenges for the development of advanced constructed wetlands technology
  14. Transition of a lake to turbid state six years after biomanipulation: mechanisms and pathways
  15. Nonlinear and set-point control of the dissolved oxygen concentration in an activated sludge process
  16. The influence of currents on circular secondary clarifier performance and design
  17. Treatment of gypsum waste in a two stage anaerobic reactor
  18. Evaluation of serratia marcescens bacteriophage as a tracer and a model for virus removal in waste stabilisation ponds
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  22. The practical use of wastewater characterisation in design
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