Journal Title
Title of Journal: Stoch Environ Res Ris Assess
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Abbravation: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
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Publisher
Springer-Verlag
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Authors: A K Mishra V R Desai
Publish Date: 2005/06/21
Volume: 19, Issue: 5, Pages: 326-339
Abstract
Drought is a global phenomenon that occurs virtually in all landscapes causing significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives Due to the random nature of contributing factors occurrence and severity of droughts can be treated as stochastic in nature Early indication of possible drought can help to set out drought mitigation strategies and measures in advance Therefore drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resource systems In this study linear stochastic models known as ARIMA and multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA models were used to forecast droughts based on the procedure of model development The models were applied to forecast droughts using standardized precipitation index SPI series in the Kansabati river basin in India which lies in the Purulia district of West Bengal state in eastern India The predicted results using the best models were compared with the observed data The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data 1–2 months ahead The predicted value decreases with increase in leadtime So the models can be used to forecast droughts up to 2 months of leadtime with reasonably accuracyThe authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for giving valuable suggestions for improving the quality of the paper The authors would also like to acknowledge the editor G Christakos for the timely handling the review processes of the paper
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