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Title of Journal: Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Abbravation: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

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Springer-Verlag

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DOI

10.1002/cber.19340670815

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1436-3259

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A dynamic regression model for air pollen concentr

Authors: Francisco OcanaPeinado Mariano J Valderrama Ana M Aguilera
Publish Date: 2007/06/07
Volume: 22, Issue: 1, Pages: 59-63
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Abstract

A transfer function model with multiplicative intervention variable is proposed in this paper in order to forecast air pollen concentration using the temperature as input series The inertia process is at the same time modelled by means of a principal component analysis PCA after a suitable time rescaling The final model is tested with cypress pollen data recorded in Granada Spain along 11 yearsThis paper was supported by Project MTM200405992 of the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología Spain and the Research Group FQM307 of the Consejería de Educación y Ciencia de la Junta de Andalucía We acknowledge to the Aerobiology Centre of the Faculty of Sciences of the University Granada to offer us the climatic and pollen observations We are also grateful with the anonymous referee whose suggestions have contributed to improve the presentation of this paper

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