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Title of Journal: Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Abbravation: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

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Springer-Verlag

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DOI

10.1016/0142-0615(87)90009-3

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1436-3259

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A multistage simulationbased optimization model f

Authors: Y Huang Y P Li X Chen A M Bao Y G Ma
Publish Date: 2012/03/31
Volume: 27, Issue: 1, Pages: 147-158
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Abstract

In this study a multistage simulationbased optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty The system couples a lumped rainfallrunoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes Moreover penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility which permits indepth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised waterallocation targets are violated The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin which is one of the most serious watershortage regions of China A variety of policies associated with different waterallocation targets are analyzed The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal waterallocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection economic development and regional sustainabilityThis research was supported by the “Western Light” Dr Program of CAS XBBS201010 and XBBS201005 the Natural Sciences Foundation of China 50979001 and 51190095 and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University IRT1127 The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions

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