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Title of Journal: Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Abbravation: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

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Springer-Verlag

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DOI

10.1007/bf02813088

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1436-3259

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Global sensitivity analysis for a numerical model

Authors: E Volkova B Iooss F Van Dorpe
Publish Date: 2006/11/23
Volume: 22, Issue: 1, Pages: 17-31
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Abstract

Today in different countries there exist sites with contaminated groundwater formed as a result of inappropriate handling or disposal of hazardous materials or wastes Numerical modeling of such sites is an important tool for a correct prediction of contamination plume spreading and an assessment of environmental risks associated with the site Many uncertainties are associated with a part of the parameters and the initial conditions of such environmental numerical models Statistical techniques are useful to deal with these uncertainties This paper describes the methods of uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis that are applied to a numerical model of radionuclide migration in a sandy aquifer in the area of the RRC “Kurchatov Institute” radwaste disposal site in Moscow Russia We consider 20 uncertain input parameters of the model and 20 output variables contaminant concentration in the observation wells predicted by the model for the end of 2010 Monte Carlo simulations allow calculating uncertainty in the output values and analyzing the linearity and the monotony of the relations between input and output variables For the non monotonic relations sensitivity analyses are classically done with the Sobol sensitivity indices The originality of this study is the use of modern surrogate models called response surfaces the boosting regression trees constructed for each output variable to calculate the Sobol indices by the Monte Carlo method It is thus shown that the most influential parameters of the model are distribution coefficients and infiltration rate in the zone of strong pipe leaks on the site Improvement of these parameters would considerably reduce the model prediction uncertaintyThis work was supported by the MRIMP project of the “Risk Control Domain” which depends on CEA/Nuclear Energy Division/Nuclear Development and Innovation Division This work is also a part of the Russian Research Center “Kurchatov Institute” Scientific and Technical Complex “Rehabilitation” project

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  1. Reservoir-induced hydrological alterations and environmental flow variation in the East River, the Pearl River basin, China
  2. Meta-elliptical copulas for drought frequency analysis of periodic hydrologic data
  3. Flood hazard mapping using synthesis hydraulic and geomorphic properties at watershed scale
  4. Pattern-based conditional simulation with a raster path: a few techniques to make it more efficient
  5. Comparison of three updating models for real time forecasting: a case study of flood forecasting at the middle reaches of the Huai River in East China
  6. Moment and Bayesian wavelet regression from spatially correlated functional data
  7. Risk factors contributing to motor vehicle collisions in an environment of uncertainty
  8. Simulation-based risk assessment of contaminated sites under remediation scenarios, planning periods, and land-use patterns—a Canadian case study
  9. Prediction of daily rainfall state in a river basin using statistical downscaling from GCM output
  10. Equivalent diffusion coefficient of clay-rich geological formations: comparison between numerical and analytical estimates
  11. A deformation/blurring-based spatio-temporal model
  12. Regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes in Southern Malawi using the index rainfall and L-moments approaches
  13. Necessity for post-processing dynamically downscaled climate projections for impact and adaptation studies
  14. Drought forecasting using stochastic models
  15. A new assessment approach for urban ecosystem health basing on maximum information entropy method
  16. Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in the Canadian Prairie Provinces using large-scale atmospheric covariates and geophysical attributes
  17. The impact of the risk environment and energy prices to the budget of Korean households
  18. Statistical algorithms accounting for background density in the detection of UXO target areas at DoD munitions sites
  19. A multistage simulation-based optimization model for water resources management in Tarim River Basin, China
  20. On the performance of a new bivariate pseudo Pareto distribution with application to drought data
  21. A method to reduce the computational requirement while assessing uncertainty of complex hydrological models
  22. A dynamic regression model for air pollen concentration
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