Journal Title
Title of Journal: Pure Appl Geophys
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Abbravation: Pure and Applied Geophysics
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Publisher
SP Birkhäuser Verlag Basel
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Authors: Zhenming Wang
Publish Date: 2010/05/11
Volume: 168, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 11-25
Abstract
Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably they are fundamentally different Furthermore seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society Two approaches probabilistic seismic hazard analysis PSHA and deterministic seismic hazard analysis DSHA are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment it is scientifically flawed ie the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy each of which has dire consequences to society On the other hand DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics ie earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty are often neglected An alternative seismic hazard analysis SHA utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applicationsI thank Meg Smath of the Kentucky Geological Survey for editorial help I appreciate comments and suggestions from Kelin Wang I also appreciate the comments and suggestions from Kojiro Irikura and two anonymous reviewers which help to improve the manuscript greatly
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