The Determination of Earthquake Hazard Parameters

Authors: Yusuf Bayrak Tuğba Türker

Publish Date: 2015/04/22

Volume: 173, Issue: 1, Pages: 205-220

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Abstract

The Bayesian method is used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude M max β value and seismic activity rate or intensity λ and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Western Anatolia A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous for M s ≥ 4 was completed during the period from 1900 to 2013 The computed M max values are between 600 and 806 Low values are found in the northern part of Western Anatolia whereas high values are observed in the southern part of Western Anatolia related to the Aegean subduction zone The largest value is computed in region 10 comprising the Aegean Islands The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval 0T are evaluated The quantiles of functions of distributions of apparent and true magnitudes for future time intervals of 5 10 20 50 and 100 years are calculated in all seismogenic source regions for confidence limits of probability levels of 50 70 and 90  According to the computed earthquake hazard parameters the requirement leads to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Western Anatolia The Aegean Islands which have the highest earthquake magnitude 765 in the next 100 years with a 90  probability level is the most dangerous region compared to other regions The results found in this study can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Western AnatoliaThe authors are thankful to Prof T M Tsapanos for providing computer program teaching us this program giving motivation and suggestions to carry out this research Authors are also thankful to Dr Pierre Keating Editor PAGEOPH and two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments and suggestions which enhanced quality of the manuscript

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