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Title of Journal: Sol Phys

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Abbravation: Solar Physics

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1016/0014-3057(77)90040-4

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ISSN

1573-093X

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Ensemble Modeling of CMEs Using the WSA–ENLIL+Cone

Authors: M L Mays A Taktakishvili A Pulkkinen P J MacNeice L Rastätter D Odstrcil L K Jian I G Richardson J A LaSota Y Zheng M M Kuznetsova
Publish Date: 2015/05/13
Volume: 290, Issue: 6, Pages: 1775-1814
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Abstract

Ensemble modeling of coronal mass ejections CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time that includes an estimation of arrivaltime uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival The realtime ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the Wang–Sheeley–Arge WSA–ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center CCMC and executed in realtime at the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center The current implementation of this ensemblemodeling method evaluates the sensitivity of WSA–ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters We discuss the results of realtime ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events that occurred between January 2013 – July 2014 For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth the mean absolute arrivaltime prediction error was 123 hours which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correctrejection rate is 62  the falsealarm rate is 38  the correctalarm ratio is 77  and the falsealarm ratio is 23  The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events The Brier Score for CME arrivalpredictions is 015 where a score of 0 on a range of 0 to 1 is a perfect forecast which indicates that on average the predicted probability or likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate The reliability of ensemble CMEarrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters eg speed direction and width particularly the median and spread Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wideenough spread in CME input parameters Prediction errors can also arise from ambientmodel parameters the accuracy of the solarwind background derived from coronal maps or other model limitations Finally predictions of the K P geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and K P prediction errors computed from the mean predicted K P show a mean absolute error of 13The work was carried out as a part of NASA’s Game Changing Development Program Advanced Radiation Protection Integrated Solar Energetic Proton ISEP project LK Jian acknowledges the support of NSF grants AGS 1242798 and 1321493 ML Mays thanks T NievesChinchilla and BJ Thompson for useful discussions We gratefully acknowledge the participants of the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard kauaiccmcgsfcnasagov/CMEscoreboard The ACE and Wind solarwind plasma and magneticfield data were obtained at NASA’s CDAWeb cdawebgsfcnasagov OMNI data were obtained from NASA’s COHOWeb omniwebgsfcnasagov/coho The Dst geomagnetic index was obtained from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism in Kyoto Japan Estimated realtime planetary K P indices are from NOAA and the NGDC and final definitive K P indices are from the Helmholtz Center Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences The SOHO/LASCO CME catalog is generated and maintained at the CDAW Data Center by NASA and the Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory SOHO is a mission of international cooperation between the European Space Agency and NASA The STEREO/SECCHI data are produced by an international consortium of the NRL LMSAL and NASA GSFC USA RAL and University of Birmingham UK MPS Germany CSL Belgium IOTA and IAS France Some figure colors are based on ColorBrewerorg


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Other Papers In This Journal:

  1. Coronal Mass Ejections from the Same Active Region Cluster: Two Different Perspectives
  2. Gnevyshev Peaks in the CME Average Speeds in Cycle 23
  3. Mapping Solar Wind Streams from the Sun to 1 AU: A Comparison of Techniques
  4. Non-reflective Propagation of Kink Waves in Coronal Magnetic Loops
  5. High-Energy Emission from a Solar Flare in Hard X-rays and Microwaves
  6. Estimating Electric Current Densities in Solar Active Regions
  7. Total Solar Irradiance Measurement and Modelling during Cycle 23
  8. Reduced Coronal Emission Above Large Isolated Sunspots
  9. Observational Signatures of Impulsively Heated Coronal Loops: Power-Law Distribution of Energies
  10. Transition of the Sunspot Number from Zurich to Brussels in 1980: A Personal Perspective
  11. Very High-Resolution Solar X-Ray Imaging Using Diffractive Optics
  12. Tracking of Coronal White-Light Events by Texture
  13. An Interpretation of a Possible Mechanism for the First Ground-Level Enhancement of Solar Cycle 24
  14. Velocities and Temperatures of an Ellerman Bomb and Its Associated Features
  15. Kink Wave Propagation in Thin Isothermal Magnetic Flux Tubes
  16. A Simple Way to Estimate the Soft X-ray Class of Far-Side Solar Flares Observed with STEREO/EUVI
  17. Multi-spacecraft Observations of CIR-Associated Ion Increases During the Ulysses 2007 Ecliptic Crossing
  18. Numerical Simulation of a Solar Active Region. I: Bastille Day Flare
  19. Magnetic Topology of Active Regions and Coronal Holes: Implications for Coronal Outflows and the Solar Wind
  20. Variations in Ratio and Correlation of Solar Magnetic Fields in the Fe i 525.02 nm and Na i 589.59 nm Lines According to Mount Wilson Measurements During 2000 – 2012
  21. Oscillations in Solar Faculae. III. The Phase Relations Between Chromospheric and Photospheric Line-of-Sight Velocities
  22. A Search for Helioseismic Signature of Emerging Active Regions
  23. Subsecond (0.1 s) Pulsations in the 11 April 2001 Radio Event
  24. Global Heliospheric Parameters and Cosmic-Ray Modulation: An Empirical Relation for the Last Decades
  25. Modeling of EIS Spectrum Drift from Instrumental Temperatures
  26. Preface
  27. Emission of Type II Radio Bursts – Single-Beam Versus Two-Beam Scenario
  28. Historical Heliophysical Series of the Ebro Observatory
  29. Dynamics of an Erupting Arched Magnetic Flux Rope in a Laboratory Plasma Experiment
  30. Eclipses Observed by Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) – A Sensitive Tool to Test Models for the Solar Irradiance
  31. The Self-Inversion of the Sign of Circular Polarization in “Halo” Microwave Sources
  32. Recent Developments of NEMO: Detection of EUV Wave Characteristics
  33. Design and Ground Calibration of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)
  34. Preface
  35. Evidence that Synchrotron Emission from Nonthermal Electrons Produces the Increasing Submillimeter Spectral Component in Solar Flares

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