Authors: K E Poruk C W Hicks J Trent Magruder N RodriguezUnda K K Burce S C Azoury P Cornell C M Cooney F E Eckhauser
Publish Date: 2016/12/18
Volume: 21, Issue: 2, Pages: 261-269
Abstract
Complex ventral hernia repair VHR is a common surgical operation but carries a risk of complications from surgical site infections SSI and occurrences SSO We aimed to create a predictive risk score to identify patients at increased risk for SSO or SSI within 30 days of surgeryData were prospectively collected on all patients undergoing VHR between January 2008 and February 2015 by a single surgeon Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent factors predictive of SSO and SSI Significant predictors of SSO and SSI were assigned point values based on their odds ratios to create a novel risk score the Hopkins ventral hernia repair SSO/SSI risk score predicted and actual rates of outcomes were then compared using weighted regressionDuring the study period 362 patients underwent open VHR Thirtyday SSO and SSI occurred in 185 and 10 of patients respectively After risk adjustment ASA class ≥3 1 point operative time ≥4 h 2 points and the absence of a postoperative wound vacuum dressing 1 point were predictive of 30day SSO Predicted risk of SSO utilizing this scoring system was 97 194 291 and 388 for 1 2 3 and 4 points AUC = 073 For SSI operative time ≥4 h 1 point and the lack of a wound vacuum dressing 1 point were predictive Predicted risk of SSI based on this scoring system was 125 for 1 point and 25 for 2 points AUC = 071 Actual vs predicted rates of SSO and SSI correlated strongly for risk model with a coefficient of determination R 2 of 092 and 091 respectivelyKEP declares a conflict of interest indirectly NIH T32 grant related to the submitted work CWH declares no conflict of interest JTM declares no conflict of interest NRU declares no conflict of interest KKB declares no conflict of interest SCA declares no conflict of interest PC declares no conflict of interest CMC declares no conflict of interest FEE declares no conflict of interest
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