Population processes in European Blackbirds Empha

Authors: Robert A Robinson Stephen R Baillie Ruth King

Publish Date: 2010/11/25

Volume: 152, Issue: 2, Pages: 419-433

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Abstract

Understanding the demographic processes driving populations is critical in formulating effective management plans State–space models offer an appealing framework in which to construct models to examine temporal and spatial variation in population dynamics as they make efficient use of the varied sources of data available We develop a Bayesian state–space model of the population dynamics of European Blackbird Turdus merula using data collected as part of the British Trust for Ornithology’s Integrated Population Monitoring programme Previous models of similar data have concentrated on simultaneous estimation of abundance and survival parameters and we extend this approach by incorporating the direct estimation of brood size and nesting success We show that annual population change is most correlated with adult survival but that population processes appear to differ in eastern and western regions of Britain which themselves differ markedly in their landscape compositionThe Common Birds Census Nest Record and Ringing Schemes are undertaken through a partnership between the BTO and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee on behalf of Natural England Scottish Natural Heritage the Countryside Council for Wales and the Northern Ireland Environment Agency This work is only possible due to many thousands of hours of fieldwork by volunteer census workers nestrecorders and ringers we are very grateful for their efforts We thank our session chairs Marc Kéry and Byron Morgan and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments

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