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Title of Journal: Sci China Technol Sci

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Abbravation: Science China Technological Sciences

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SP Science China Press

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DOI

10.1002/pon.2960010207

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1862-281X

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Vehicle survival patterns in China

Authors: Han Hao HeWu Wang MingGao Ouyang Fei Cheng
Publish Date: 2011/02/01
Volume: 54, Issue: 3, Pages: 625-629
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Abstract

The vehicle survival pattern describes the process that the survival ratio of vehicles decreases with the growth of vehicle age Vehicle average life span and vehicle scrappage intensity are the key features of vehicle survival patterns and are important for the projection of China’s vehicle scrappage and ownership In this study we modeled the vehicle survival patterns of nine classifications of vehicles in China by employing the Weibull distribution and obtained the vehicle survival ratio functions It is estimated that the average life spans of private passenger vehicles government and business vehicles nonoperating buses heavy duty medium duty and light duty trucks are 145 131 115 128 101 and 8 years respectively The scrappage intensities of these vehicles are similar Average life spans of taxis transit buses and nontransit operating buses are 5 9 and 55 years with the pattern of mandatory scrappage Vehicle scrappages in China are mainly regulated by the upper limits of vehicle distances traveled specified by the compulsory scrappage standards

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