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Title of Journal: Reg Environ Change

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Abbravation: Regional Environmental Change

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1002/ange.19280410416

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1436-378X

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Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for al

Authors: Nora PérezGarcía Xavier Font Albert Ferré Jordi Carreras
Publish Date: 2013/03/03
Volume: 13, Issue: 6, Pages: 1157-1169
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Abstract

Recent climate change is already affecting both ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them with mountains and their associated biota being particularly vulnerable Due to the high conservation value of mountain ecosystems reliable sciencebased information is needed to implement additional conservation efforts in order to ensure their future This paper examines how climate change might impact on the distribution of the main alpine and subalpine vegetation in terms of losses of suitable area in the Oriental Pyrenees The algorithm of maximum entropy Maxent was used to relate current environmental conditions climate topography geological properties to present data for the studied vegetation units and time and space projections were subsequently carried out considering climate change predictions for the years 2020 2050 and 2080 All models predicted rising altitude trends for all studied vegetation units Moreover the analysis of future trends under different climate scenarios for 2080 suggests an average loss in potential ranges of 923–999  for alpine grasslands 768–984  for subalpine and alpine scrublands and 688–961  for subalpine forest The drastic reduction in the potential distribution areas for alpine grasslands subalpine scrublands and Pinus uncinata forests highlights the potential severity of the effects of climate change on vegetation in the highest regions of the Pyrenees Thus alpine grasslands can be expected to become relegated to refuge areas summit areas with their current range being taken over by subalpine scrublands Furthermore subalpine forest units will probably become displaced and will occupy areas that currently present subalpine scrub vegetationWe thank all of the experts who have worked to the current state of the knowledge of flora in the Oriental Pyrenees The SIVIM project was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science project CGL200913317C0301/BOS We also thank Dr Christophe Randin and an anonymous referee for their constructive comments which improved the clarity and coherence of the paper

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