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Title of Journal: Reg Environ Change

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Abbravation: Regional Environmental Change

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1007/bf02849595

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1436-378X

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Estimating urban water demand under conditions of

Authors: Maotian Li Brian Finlayson Michael Webber Jon Barnett Sophie Webber Sarah Rogers Zhongyuan Chen Taoyuan Wei Jing Chen Xiaodan Wu Mark Wang
Publish Date: 2017/01/18
Volume: 17, Issue: 4, Pages: 1153-1161
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Abstract

Many of the world’s major cities are expected to face significant water shortages in coming decades largely due to increased demand arising from economic and population growth In this paper we estimate the effects of economic and population growth on future public water needs in Shanghai one of the world’s megacities Despite significant investment in a new reservoir and associated supply systems and its location at the estuary of one the world’s major rivers the Yangtze it is widely believed that Shanghai is vulnerable to water shortages though the causes of this have hitherto not been systematically examined Our method of estimating future water needs involves extrapolation from past trends and principal component analysis regression and from the experience of comparable cities around the world to construct three scenarios of future GDP and population growth and associated water needs Our analysis shows that under various scenarios by 2050 the difference between demand and present supply capacity will range between 16 and 6 million m3/day and that the critical constraint to meeting future demand is treatment capacity which will need to increase by between 35 and 83 beyond present levels We discuss four options for managing the estimated deficit between future water demand and supply in Shanghai

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