Authors: TungLin Tsai PingYu Tsai PeiJhang Yang
Publish Date: 2014/09/21
Volume: 73, Issue: 8, Pages: 4109-4117
Abstract
The assessment of rainfallinduced shallow landslides using a physicalbased model requires accounting for the uncertainty of soil parameters that cannot be accurately quantified In this study the modified Iverson model was integrated with the Rosenblueth pointestimate method to probabilistically model rainfallinduced shallow landslides while simultaneously considering the uncertainty and correlation of soil parameters Using various soil parameters hillslope conditions and hydrological conditions the applicability of the Rosenblueth pointestimate method was compared with that of the Monte Carlo simulation method The simulated results indicated that the Rosenblueth pointestimate method can accurately and efficiently assess the probability of rainfallinduced shallow landslides A lognormal distribution of the safety factor can be assumed when the soil parameters are lognormally distributed random variables Accounting for the correlation of soil parameters decreases the standard deviation of the safety factor but does not affect the mean of the safety factor Neglecting the correlation of soil parameters could substantially misestimate the probability of rainfallinduced shallow landslides
Keywords: