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Title of Journal: Soc Indic Res

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Abbravation: Social Indicators Research

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1016/0304-3940(81)90352-9

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1573-0921

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Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in As

Authors: SangHyop Lee Jungsuk Kim Donghyun Park
Publish Date: 2016/08/09
Volume: 134, Issue: 1, Pages: 287-322
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Abstract

Changes in the population age structure can have significant effects on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both government revenue and expenditure In this paper we project government revenue expenditure and fiscal balance in developing Asia up to 2050 using a simple stylized model and the National Transfer Accounts data set Rapidly aging countries are likely to suffer a tangible deterioration of fiscal sustainability under their current tax and expenditure system On the other hand rapid economic growth can improve fiscal health in poorer relatively young countries with stillgrowing workingage populations Overall our results indicate that Asia’s population aging will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability pointing to a need for Asian countries to further examine the impact of demographic shifts on their fiscal health

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