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Title of Journal: Theor Appl Climatol

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Abbravation: Theoretical and Applied Climatology

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Springer-Verlag

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DOI

10.1007/bf01813233

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1434-4483

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Largescale climate variability and its effects on

Authors: A K GoRMSEn A Hense T B ToldamAndersen P Braun
Publish Date: 2005/03/31
Volume: 82, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 41-50
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Abstract

Largescale climate variability largely affects average climatic conditions and therefore is likely to influence the phenology of plants In NWEurope the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO particularly influences winter climate and through climate interactions on plants flowering time of all tree species In Denmark like in many other NWEuropean countries flowering of most tree species has become earlier since the end of the 1980’s To quantify a possible relation between NAO and flowering time of tree species two sources of phenological information from the Copenhagen area Denmark were analysed ie pollen counts of the genus Betula and observed first bloom dates of Prunus avium The Winter NAO explained 29 and 37 of the variation of monthly mean temperature for February and March respectively The influence of temperature on flowering time was up to 56 to 60 for the February–April mean A direct correlation of Winter NAOindex and flowering time also revealed a clear relation but the time of influence was earlier December to February This was shown to be the likely result of a combination of direct and timelagged effects of the NAO on air and sea surface temperature The NAO signal is apparently stored in the North Sea and then influences temperature east up to the Baltic States It is shown that Denmark is right in the centre of direct and timelagged effects of the NAO This offers the possibility of using the NAOindex for predicting flowering time of Prunus avium The beginning of pollen flow appears to be influenced too much by shortterm perturbations of the climate system decreasing the value of the NAOindex for prediction However it indicates a close relationship between natural climate variability measured by the NAO index and flowering time of tree species for Denmark

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