Journal Title
Title of Journal: Theor Appl Climatol
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Abbravation: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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Publisher
Springer Vienna
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Authors: U K Singh G P Singh Vikas Singh
Publish Date: 2014/05/02
Volume: 120, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 109-122
Abstract
The performance of 11 AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center APCC global climate models coupled and uncoupled both in simulating the seasonal summer June–August monsoon rainfall variability over Asia especially over India and East Asia has been evaluated in detail using hindcast data 3 months advance generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multimodel ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years 1983–2003 and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall ASMR has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation CMAP compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members suggesting that the model’s performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature SST and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models suggesting that airsea interaction is well cared in coupled models The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multimodel ensemble MME performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole The results of various statistical measures like skill of multimodel ensemble large spread among the ensemble members of individual model strong teleconnection correlation analysis with SST coefficient of variation interannual variability analysis of Taylor Diagram etc suggest that there is a need to improve coupled model instead of uncoupled model for the development of a better dynamical seasonal forecast systemThe authors are indebted to reviewers for the thoughtful review and for the constructive comments given to our paper We are very grateful to the institutions participating in the APCC multimodel ensemble operational system for providing the hindcast experiment data The first and corresponding authors want to acknowledge project no KBCAOS/SEL/DSTMoES/18/2013 and project no DST/CCP/NMSKCC/10 respectively
Keywords:
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