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Title of Journal: Theor Appl Climatol

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Abbravation: Theoretical and Applied Climatology

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Springer Vienna

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DOI

10.1016/0035-9203(87)90399-3

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1434-4483

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Comparison of intraseasonal forecast of Indian su

Authors: D R Pattanaik Arun Kumar
Publish Date: 2013/12/24
Volume: 118, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 331-345
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Abstract

The realtime forecasting of monsoon activity over India on extended range time scale about 3 weeks is analyzed for the monsoon season of 2012 during June to September JJAS by using the outputs from latest CFSv2 Climate Forecast System version 2 and previous version CFSv1 Climate Forecast System version 1 of NCEP coupled modeling system The skill of monsoon rainfall forecast is found to be much better in CFSv2 than CFSv1 For the country as a whole the correlation coefficient CC between weekly observed and forecast rainfall departure was found to be statistically significant 99  level at least for 2 weeks up to 18 days and also having positive CC during week 3 days 19–25 in CFSv2 The other skill scores like the mean absolute error MAE and the root mean square error RMSE also had better performance in CFSv2 compared to that of CFSv1 Over the four homogeneous regions of India the forecast skill is found to be better in CFSv2 with almost all four regions with CC significant at 95  level up to 2 weeks whereas the CFSv1 forecast had significant CC only over northwest India during week 1 days 5–11 forecast The improvement in CFSv2 was very prominent over central India and northwest India compared to other two regions On the meteorological subdivision level India is divided into 36 meteorological subdivisions the percentage of correct category forecast was found to be much higher than the climatology normal forecast in CFSv2 as well as in CFSv1 with CFSv2 being 8–10  higher in the category of correct to partially correct one category out forecast compared to that in CFSv1 Thus it is concluded that the latest version of CFS coupled model has higher skill in predicting Indian monsoon rainfall on extended range time scale up to about 25 daysWe sincerely acknowledge the NCEP for providing the realtime forecast products of their coupled models which have been used in the present study The first author is also thankful to the Director General India Meteorological Department IMD for the valuable support in carrying out this work and to the DDGM NWP for providing computing facility Thanks are also due to the National Climate Centre NCC and hydrology division of IMD for making available the rainfall data used in the present study

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