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Title of Journal: Nat Hazards

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Abbravation: Natural Hazards

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Kluwer Academic Publishers

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DOI

10.1002/ima.20157

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1573-0840

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Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—

Authors: S K Roy Bhowmik S D Kotal S R Kalsi
Publish Date: 2006/11/17
Volume: 41, Issue: 3, Pages: 447-455
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Abstract

One very specific operational requirement of the Tropical Cyclone TC Programme of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre New Delhi is to provide 12hourly forecasts valid up to 48 h preferably 72 h on the intensity of cyclones over the southern Indian Seas In this paper a simple empirical model for predicting the intensity of TCs occurring in the Bay of Bengal is proposed The model parameter has been determined from a database assembled on 30 recent cyclones and the model itself is based on the assumption that a TC intensifies exponentially A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent observation hours 6 or 12h intervals is also presented The results show that the forecast skill for forecasts of up to 48 h is reasonably good The absolute mean errors are less than 12 knots for 48h forecasts with the forecast skill decreasing with time With the incorporation of a correction procedure based on the latest observations some improvement in the forecast skill can be obtained The model is expected to be useful to operational forecasters

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