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Title of Journal: Nat Hazards

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Abbravation: Natural Hazards

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Springer Netherlands

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DOI

10.1002/bjs.1800590736

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1573-0840

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Model for prediction of sea dike breaching initiat

Authors: Grzegorz Stanczak Hocine Oumeraci
Publish Date: 2011/11/30
Volume: 61, Issue: 2, Pages: 673-687
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Abstract

A computational model system is proposed for the prediction of sea dike breaching initiated from the seaward side by breaking wave impact with the focus on the application of the model system for the estimation failure probability of the defence structure The described model system is built using a number of existing models for the calculation of grass clay and sand erosion The parameters identified as those having the most significant influence on the estimation of the failure have been described stochastically Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties of the relevant input parameters and the model itself have been performed and the probabilities of the breach initiation and of the full dike breaching have been calculated This will form the basis to assess the coastal flood risk due to dike breaching

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