Journal Title
Title of Journal: Nat Hazards
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Abbravation: Natural Hazards
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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
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Authors: Qi Zhang Jiquan Zhang
Publish Date: 2016/01/13
Volume: 81, Issue: 2, Pages: 1323-1331
Abstract
Drought hazard is the main restrictive factor in the field of food production in China and climate change may aggravate it over the long run The present study aims to assess the potential drought hazard at present as well as determine future different climate change scenarios based on the data of monthly precipitation and temperature Drought is defined using the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index The probability density function of SPEI was used to create the drought hazard index DH which provides a comprehensive overview of the frequency and intensity of drought events The statistical downscale method was used to convert the regional climate model output grid data into meteorological station data for the near future 2020–2050 under three Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs The results showed that in the baseline 1981–2010 DH is much serious in Jilin compared with Henan In the near future 2020–2050 DH increases in the case of RCP85 and the increased scale is larger in Henan In the case of RCP45 the DH will be flat with baseline in Jilin and slightly increase in Henan DH may relieve in case of RCP26 The results can help to optimize agriculture allocation and policy making with regard to climate change adaptationThis study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos 41501553 41571491 and 31400416 the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu under Grant No BK20150898 the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST under Grant No 2014r052 and National Key Technology RD Program of China under Grant No 2011BAD32B0004
Keywords:
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