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Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

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Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

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Springer-Verlag

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DOI

10.1016/0009-2509(91)80066-8

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1432-0894

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The impact of perturbations to oceanmodel paramet

Authors: Chris M Brierley Matthew Collins Alan J Thorpe
Publish Date: 2008/11/11
Volume: 34, Issue: 2-3, Pages: 325-343
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Abstract

Assessments of the impacts of uncertainties in parameters on mean climate and climate change in complex climate models have to date largely focussed on perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere component of the model Here we expand on a previously published study which found the global impacts of perturbed ocean parameters on the rate of transient climate change to be small compared to perturbed atmosphere parameters By separating the climatechangeinduced ocean vertical heat transport in each perturbed member into components associated with the resolved flow and each parameterisation scheme we show that variations in global mean heat uptake in different perturbed versions are an order of magnitude smaller than the average heat uptake The lack of impact of the perturbations is attributed to 1 the relatively small impact of the perturbation on the direct vertical heat transport associated with the perturbed process and 2 a compensation between those direct changes and indirect changes in heat transport from other processes Interactions between processes and changes appear to combine in complex ways to limit ensemble spread and uncertainty in the rate of warming We also investigate regional impacts of the perturbations that may be important for climate change predictions We find variations across the ensemble that are significant when measured against natural variability In terms of the experimental setup used here models without flux adjustments we conclude that perturbed physics ensembles with ocean parameter perturbations are an important component of any probabilistic estimate of future climate change despite the low spread in global mean quantities Hence careful consideration should be given to assessing uncertainty in ocean processes in future probabilistic assessments of regional climate change

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Other Papers In This Journal:
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  4. Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations
  5. Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results
  6. Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012
  7. How well do reanalyses represent the southern African precipitation?
  8. Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model
  9. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions
  10. Oxygen stable isotope ratios from British oak tree-rings provide a strong and consistent record of past changes in summer rainfall
  11. Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate
  12. A regional response in mean westerly circulation and rainfall to projected climate warming over Tasmania, Australia
  13. Hovmöller diagrams of climate anomalies in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2009
  14. How does coldwave frequency in china respond to a warming climate?
  15. Characterizing the zonally asymmetric component of the SH circulation
  16. Some mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing PMIP models to data
  17. Altered atmospheric responses to eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niños over the North Atlantic region due to stratospheric interference
  18. The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region
  19. A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections
  20. Impact of vegetation feedback on the temperature and its diurnal range over the Northern Hemisphere during summer in a 2 × CO 2 climate
  21. Dynamical and thermodynamical analysis of the South China Sea winter cold tongue
  22. Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation
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  24. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America
  25. Enhanced albedo feedback in North Africa from possible combined vegetation and soil-formation processes
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  27. A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level
  28. A framework for investigating large-scale patterns as an alternative to precipitation for downscaling to local drought
  29. Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios
  30. Biases and improvements in three dynamical downscaling climate simulations over China
  31. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system
  32. Global effect of irrigation and its impact on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon
  33. Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles
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  40. The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation
  41. Using joint probability distribution functions to evaluate simulations of precipitation, cloud fraction and insolation in the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
  42. Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3
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  54. Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme
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  57. Seasonal scale variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and the development of a two-dimensional monsoon index
  58. The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model
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