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Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

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Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1007/s10614-009-9194-2

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1432-0894

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Treering reconstructed summer temperature anomali

Authors: Edward R Cook Paul J Krusic Kevin J Anchukaitis Brendan M Buckley Takeshi Nakatsuka Masaki Sano PAGES Asia2k Members
Publish Date: 2012/12/05
Volume: 41, Issue: 11-12, Pages: 2957-2972
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Abstract

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual treering chronologies covering the period 800–1989 CE The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of pointbypoint regression Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch ca 850–1050 CE followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions ca 1350–1880 CE and 20th century warming up to the present time Since 1990 average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration but it is not statistically unprecedented Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years Substantial uncertainties remain however particularly at lower frequencies thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this recordPAGES Asia 2k Members are Moinuddin Ahmed Hemant Borgaonkar Xu Chenxi Guoqiang Chu Zexin Fan Narayan Gaire Quansheng Ge Katsuhiko Kimura Jonathan Palmer Tatyana Papina Margit Schwikowski Xuemei Shao Feng Shi Olga Solomina Zafer Usama Chenzi Xu Koh Yasue Masumi Zaiki Kan Zhao and Jingyun ZhengCRU TS 31 data are available from http//badcnercacuk/data/cru Two Asia2k Workshops held in Nagoya Japan and Chiang Mai Thailand were supported by PAGES Nagoya University and a grant to TN from the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature in Japan ERC KJA and BMB acknowledge the support of the US National Science Foundation ATM 0402474 and GEO 0908971 LamontDoherty Earth Observatory Contribution No 7638

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