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Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

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Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

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Springer-Verlag

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1432-0894

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The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime ci

Authors: Emily E Riddle Marshall B Stoner Nathaniel C Johnson Michelle L L’Heureux Dan C Collins Steven B Feldstein
Publish Date: 2012/08/29
Volume: 40, Issue: 7-8, Pages: 1749-1766
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Abstract

Recent studies have shown that the Madden–Julian Oscillation MJO impacts the leading modes of intraseasonal variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics providing a possible source of predictive skill over North America at intraseasonal timescales We find that a kmeans cluster analysis of midlevel geopotential height anomalies over the North American region identifies several wintertime cluster patterns whose probabilities are strongly modulated during and after MJO events particularly during certain phases of the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation ENSO We use a simple new optimization method for determining the number of clusters k and show that it results in a set of clusters which are robust to changes in the domain or time period examined Several of the resulting cluster patterns resemble linear combinations of the Arctic Oscillation AO and the Pacific/North American PNA teleconnection pattern but show even stronger responses to the MJO and ENSO than clusters based on the AO and PNA alone A cluster resembling the positive negative PNA has elevated probabilities approximately 8–14 days following phase 6 phase 3 of the MJO while a negative AOlike cluster has elevated probabilities 10–20 days following phase 7 of the MJO The observed relationships are relatively well reproduced in the 11year daily reforecast dataset from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 CFSv2 This study statistically links MJO activity in the tropics to common intraseasonal circulation anomalies over the North American sector establishing a framework that may be useful for improving extended range forecasts over this regionSupport for this work was provided by the NOAA Climate Test Bed and the NOAA Student Career Experience Program SCEP We would also like to thank Jon Gottschalck and Peitao Peng at the Climate Prediction Center and two anonymous reviews for their very helpful editorial comments on the manuscript

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