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Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

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Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1007/bf00860409

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ISSN

1432-0894

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Realtime multimodel decadal climate predictions

Authors: Doug M Smith Adam A Scaife George J Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J DoblasReyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J Merryfield Wolfgang A Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser
Publish Date: 2012/12/05
Volume: 41, Issue: 11-12, Pages: 2875-2888
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Abstract

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models initialized with prior observations This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near realtime in order to assess differences and similarities provide a consensus view to prevent overconfidence in forecasts from any single model and establish current collective capability We stress that the forecast is experimental since the skill of the multimodel system is as yet unknown Nevertheless the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill Moreover it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations with a pattern correlation of 062 compared to 031 for uninitialized projections In particular the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña Indices of Atlantic multidecadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015 while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 05 °C over the coming decade However uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions Relative to uninitialized forecasts initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic subpolar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead However in the absence of volcanic eruptions global temperature is predicted to continue to rise with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50  chance of exceeding the current observed record Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate changeThis work was supported by the joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101 and the EU FP7 THOR and COMBINE projects MPI work was supported by the BMBF Nordatlantik and MiKlip projects Ben Kirtman was supported by NOAA grants NA10OAR4320143 and NA10OAR4310203 IC3 work was supported by the EUfunded QWeCI FP7ENV20091243964 and CLIMRUN projects FP7ENV2010265192 the MICINNfunded RUCSS CGL201020657 projects and the Catalan Government The IC3 authors thankfully acknowledge the computer resources technical expertise and assistance provided by the Red Española de Supercomputación RES the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts ECMWF under the special project SPESICCF and Muhammad Asif for his invaluable support in running the experiments NASA supported J Lean MIROC work was supported by the KAKUSHIN program of the Ministry of Education Culture Sports Science and Technology Japan The Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC was employed to perform MIROC experiments MRI work was supported by the Japan Meteorological Agency research program and partly by the KAKUSHIN Program

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Other Papers In This Journal:
  1. On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Niño
  2. On the northward shift of the West African monsoon
  3. Impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent in the austral summer
  4. The impact of perturbations to ocean-model parameters on climate and climate change in a coupled model
  5. Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations
  6. Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results
  7. Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012
  8. How well do reanalyses represent the southern African precipitation?
  9. Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model
  10. Oxygen stable isotope ratios from British oak tree-rings provide a strong and consistent record of past changes in summer rainfall
  11. Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate
  12. A regional response in mean westerly circulation and rainfall to projected climate warming over Tasmania, Australia
  13. Hovmöller diagrams of climate anomalies in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2009
  14. How does coldwave frequency in china respond to a warming climate?
  15. Characterizing the zonally asymmetric component of the SH circulation
  16. Some mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing PMIP models to data
  17. Altered atmospheric responses to eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niños over the North Atlantic region due to stratospheric interference
  18. The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region
  19. A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections
  20. Impact of vegetation feedback on the temperature and its diurnal range over the Northern Hemisphere during summer in a 2 × CO 2 climate
  21. Dynamical and thermodynamical analysis of the South China Sea winter cold tongue
  22. Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation
  23. Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling
  24. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America
  25. Enhanced albedo feedback in North Africa from possible combined vegetation and soil-formation processes
  26. Tropical Pacific internal atmospheric dynamics and resolution in a coupled GCM
  27. A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level
  28. A framework for investigating large-scale patterns as an alternative to precipitation for downscaling to local drought
  29. Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios
  30. Biases and improvements in three dynamical downscaling climate simulations over China
  31. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system
  32. Global effect of irrigation and its impact on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon
  33. Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles
  34. Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model
  35. Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change
  36. High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate
  37. Partial lateral forcing experiments reveal how multi-scale processes induce devastating rainfall: a new application of regional modeling
  38. The role of meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming in regulating the Atlantic meridional overturning in glacial climate simulations
  39. Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.
  40. The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation
  41. Using joint probability distribution functions to evaluate simulations of precipitation, cloud fraction and insolation in the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
  42. Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3
  43. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise
  44. Uncertainties in the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing and their impacts on regional and global hydrological simulations
  45. Identifying extreme hottest days from large scale upper air data: a pilot scheme to find California Central Valley summertime maximum surface temperatures
  46. Sensitivity of a regional climate model to land surface parameterization schemes for East Asian summer monsoon simulation
  47. Air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic during summer
  48. Variability in global land surface energy budgets during 1987–1988 simulated by an off-line land surface model
  49. Relationships between cut-off lows and the semiannual and southern oscillations
  50. Are band-pass variance statistics useful measures of storm track activity? Re-examining storm track variability associated with the NAO using multiple storm track measures
  51. Assessing the performance of the CFSR by an ensemble of analyses
  52. Interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its relation to regional climate
  53. Assessment of different metrics for physical climate feedbacks
  54. Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme
  55. On the effect of boundary conditions on the Canadian Regional Climate Model: use of process tendencies
  56. An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology
  57. Seasonal scale variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and the development of a two-dimensional monsoon index
  58. The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model
  59. Upper tropospheric warming intensifies sea surface warming
  60. Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change
  61. Simulated global-scale response of the climate system to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events
  62. Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña?
  63. Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña?
  64. Enhancement of wind stress evaluation method under storm conditions
  65. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions
  66. Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability
  67. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific
  68. Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model
  69. Impact of a projected future Arctic Sea Ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO
  70. Simulation of paleoclimate over East Asia at 6 ka BP and 21 ka BP by a regional climate model
  71. Simulation sensitivities of the major weather regimes of the Southeast Asia region
  72. A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1
  73. Convective signals from surface measurements at ARM Tropical Western Pacific site: Manus
  74. Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes
  75. Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
  76. Response in atmospheric circulation and sources of Greenland precipitation to glacial boundary conditions
  77. Modulation of the Southern Africa precipitation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation by the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole
  78. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2
  79. An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width
  80. Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)
  81. Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models
  82. Effects of “realistic” land-cover change on a greenhouse-warmed African climate
  83. Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)
  84. Role of stratiform heating on the organization of convection over the monsoon trough
  85. Coupled climate impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway
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