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Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

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Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1007/s00382-013-1944-0

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1432-0894

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Variability and predictability of Northeast China

Authors: Zongting Gao ZengZhen Hu Bhaskar Jha Song Yang Jieshun Zhu Baizhu Shen Renjian Zhang
Publish Date: 2013/09/24
Volume: 43, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 787-804
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Abstract

In this work authors examine the variabilities of precipitation and surface air temperature T2m in Northeast China during 1948–2012 and their global connection as well as the predictability It is noted that both the precipitation and T2m variations in Northeast China are dominated by interannual and higher frequency variations However on interdecadal time scales T2m is shifted significantly from below normal to above normal around 1987/1988 Statistically the seasonal mean precipitation and T2m are largely driven by local internal atmospheric variability rather than remote forcing For the precipitation variation circulation anomalies in the low latitudes play a more important role in spring and summer than in autumn and winter For T2m variations the associated sea surface pressure SLP and 850hPa wind uv850 anomalies are similar for all seasons in high latitudes with significantly negative correlations for SLP and westerly wind anomaly for uv850 suggesting that a strong zonal circulation in the high latitudes favors warming in Northeast China The predictability of precipitation and T2m in Northeast China is assessed by using the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project type experiments which are forced by observed sea surface temperature SST and timeevolving greenhouse gas GHG concentrations Results suggest that T2m has slightly higher predictability than precipitation in Northeast China To some extent the model simulates the interdecadal shift of T2m around 1987/1988 implying a possible connection between SST and/or GHG forcing and surface air temperature variation in Northeast China on interdecadal time scales Nevertheless the precipitation and T2m variations are mainly determined by the unpredictable components which are caused by the atmospheric internal dynamic processes suggesting low predictability for the climate variation in Northeast ChinaWe thank the constructive comments and suggestions from two reviewers We would also like to thank Emily Becker for providing GHCN CAMS T2m data and Mingyue Chen for providing PREC precipitation data This work was jointly supported by the RD Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry Meteorology Grant GYHY201106015 National Basic Research Program of China Grant 2012CB955303 the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant 41275096 and Zhongshan University “985 Project” Phase 3

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