Paper Search Console

Home Search Page About Contact

Journal Title

Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

Search In Journal Title:

Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

Search In Journal Abbravation:

Publisher

Springer-Verlag

Search In Publisher:

DOI

10.1007/bf03002084

Search In DOI:

ISSN

1432-0894

Search In ISSN:
Search In Title Of Papers:

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity

Authors: Philip B Holden N R Edwards K I C Oliver T M Lenton R D Wilkinson
Publish Date: 2009/07/26
Volume: 35, Issue: 5, Pages: 785-806
PDF Link

Abstract

In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model We develop ~1000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate but not precise observations This allows a wide range of largescale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric ±093°C 1σ vegetation ±032°C ocean ±024°C and sea–ice ±014°C parameterisations to the total uncertainty We then perform an LGMconstrained Bayesian calibration incorporating datadriven priors and formally accounting for structural error We estimate climate sensitivity as likely 66 confidence to lie in the range 26–44°C with a peak probability at 36°C We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 53–75°C with a peak probability at 62°C In addition to estimates of global temperature change we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO2 probability distributions for land carbon storage Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage Notably under 2xCO2 we calculate a probability of 37 that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO2This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council QUESTDESIRE Quaternary QUEST and RAPID UK THC MIP the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models project MUCM and the Leverhulme Trust We are grateful for the thorough reviews of both referees which have greatly helped to strengthen the paper and to Jonathan Rougier for several very useful discussions

Keywords:

References

.
Search In Abstract Of Papers:
Other Papers In This Journal:
  1. On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Niño
  2. On the northward shift of the West African monsoon
  3. Impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent in the austral summer
  4. The impact of perturbations to ocean-model parameters on climate and climate change in a coupled model
  5. Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations
  6. Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results
  7. Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012
  8. How well do reanalyses represent the southern African precipitation?
  9. Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model
  10. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions
  11. Oxygen stable isotope ratios from British oak tree-rings provide a strong and consistent record of past changes in summer rainfall
  12. Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate
  13. A regional response in mean westerly circulation and rainfall to projected climate warming over Tasmania, Australia
  14. Hovmöller diagrams of climate anomalies in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2009
  15. How does coldwave frequency in china respond to a warming climate?
  16. Characterizing the zonally asymmetric component of the SH circulation
  17. Some mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing PMIP models to data
  18. Altered atmospheric responses to eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niños over the North Atlantic region due to stratospheric interference
  19. The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region
  20. A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections
  21. Impact of vegetation feedback on the temperature and its diurnal range over the Northern Hemisphere during summer in a 2 × CO 2 climate
  22. Dynamical and thermodynamical analysis of the South China Sea winter cold tongue
  23. Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation
  24. Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling
  25. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America
  26. Enhanced albedo feedback in North Africa from possible combined vegetation and soil-formation processes
  27. Tropical Pacific internal atmospheric dynamics and resolution in a coupled GCM
  28. A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level
  29. A framework for investigating large-scale patterns as an alternative to precipitation for downscaling to local drought
  30. Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios
  31. Biases and improvements in three dynamical downscaling climate simulations over China
  32. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system
  33. Global effect of irrigation and its impact on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon
  34. Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles
  35. Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model
  36. Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change
  37. High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate
  38. Partial lateral forcing experiments reveal how multi-scale processes induce devastating rainfall: a new application of regional modeling
  39. The role of meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming in regulating the Atlantic meridional overturning in glacial climate simulations
  40. Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.
  41. The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation
  42. Using joint probability distribution functions to evaluate simulations of precipitation, cloud fraction and insolation in the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
  43. Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3
  44. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise
  45. Uncertainties in the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing and their impacts on regional and global hydrological simulations
  46. Identifying extreme hottest days from large scale upper air data: a pilot scheme to find California Central Valley summertime maximum surface temperatures
  47. Sensitivity of a regional climate model to land surface parameterization schemes for East Asian summer monsoon simulation
  48. Air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic during summer
  49. Variability in global land surface energy budgets during 1987–1988 simulated by an off-line land surface model
  50. Relationships between cut-off lows and the semiannual and southern oscillations
  51. Are band-pass variance statistics useful measures of storm track activity? Re-examining storm track variability associated with the NAO using multiple storm track measures
  52. Assessing the performance of the CFSR by an ensemble of analyses
  53. Interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its relation to regional climate
  54. Assessment of different metrics for physical climate feedbacks
  55. Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme
  56. On the effect of boundary conditions on the Canadian Regional Climate Model: use of process tendencies
  57. An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology
  58. Seasonal scale variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and the development of a two-dimensional monsoon index
  59. The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model
  60. Upper tropospheric warming intensifies sea surface warming
  61. Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change
  62. Simulated global-scale response of the climate system to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events
  63. Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña?
  64. Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña?
  65. Enhancement of wind stress evaluation method under storm conditions
  66. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions
  67. Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability
  68. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific
  69. Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model
  70. Impact of a projected future Arctic Sea Ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO
  71. Simulation of paleoclimate over East Asia at 6 ka BP and 21 ka BP by a regional climate model
  72. Simulation sensitivities of the major weather regimes of the Southeast Asia region
  73. Convective signals from surface measurements at ARM Tropical Western Pacific site: Manus
  74. Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes
  75. Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
  76. Response in atmospheric circulation and sources of Greenland precipitation to glacial boundary conditions
  77. Modulation of the Southern Africa precipitation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation by the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole
  78. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2
  79. An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width
  80. Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)
  81. Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models
  82. Effects of “realistic” land-cover change on a greenhouse-warmed African climate
  83. Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)
  84. Role of stratiform heating on the organization of convection over the monsoon trough
  85. Coupled climate impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway
Search Result: