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Title of Journal: Clim Dyn

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Abbravation: Climate Dynamics

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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DOI

10.1007/s00423-003-0398-y

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1432-0894

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Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface

Authors: Juliette Mignot Javier GarcíaSerrano Didier Swingedouw Agathe Germe Sébastien Nguyen Pablo Ortega Eric Guilyardi Sulagna Ray
Publish Date: 2015/12/01
Volume: 47, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 1225-1246
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Abstract

Two decadal prediction ensembles based on the same climate model IPSLCM5ALR and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upperocean variables in different regions of the globe One ensemble consists of 3member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill Results provide a potential prediction skill verification against the nudged simulation beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale but essentially associated with nonlinear radiative forcings in particular from volcanoes At regional scale we obtain 1 year in the tropical band 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic for both sea surface temperature SST and upperocean heat content Actual prediction skill verified against observational or reanalysis data is overall more limited and less robust Even so large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upperocean heat content Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal prediction exercises a high frequency of start dates is needed to achieve robust statistical significance and a large ensemble size is required to increase the signal to noise ratioThis work was supported by the EU project SPECS funded by the European Commissions Seventh Framework Research Program FP7 under the Grant agreement 308378 JGS was supported by the FP7funded NACLIM ENV308299 project Computations were carried out at the CCRTTGCC supercomputing centre We are grateful to both reviewers for their constructive comments which helped improved the manuscript

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